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• Tighter fundamentals pushing prices higher, reinforced by temporary tailwinds
• The apparent ‘truce’ between OPEC and US shale is an unstable equilibrium
• Oil market buoyancy amplified by Goldi...
• US equities have emerged as the clear winners in Q3, helped by Tech
• Euro area EPS growth was disappointing and forward guidance poor
• But EA valuations remain compelling and consensus growth is now more...
• Safe asset shortage driven by ECB/BoJ QE compresses US term premia
• A sudden rise in US yields would increase supply of safe dollar assets
• But it might worsen banks’ HQLA portfolio position, tighte...
• Snap election or not, Germany will likely end up with a minority government
• This government might be weak, but could equally prove surprisingly effective
• The risk for Germany and Europe is not turmoil b...
• Falling commodity demand only the first problem for Australia
• Amazon Australia launch to import disinflation and pressure retail sector
• NZ comparatively bullish; look to buy NZD against AUD on politics-driven dip...
• Despite calls that the end is near, the business cycle will carry on
• Breadth of global growth is ‘unprecedented’, less debt-dependent
• Investor positioning far from stretched despite bullish outlook
• Rising vol into year-end reflects a misplaced focus on central banks
• Year-end political upside risk for UK is under-priced: buy EUR/GBP put spread
• Inflation capitulation in SEK ignores fundamentals: buy EUR/SEK put spr...
• Tech stocks likely to benefit from repatriation tax cut
• Small caps to benefit from headline tax cuts, but mostly priced in
• Larger fiscal deficit to boost growth: in sum, equities well set for further gains