Macro Economic Research
18
Dec
2017
Oil in the age of forward guidance


• 2018 a sweet spot year for both OPEC and US shale
• But the apparent ‘ceasefire’ is an unstable equilibrium
• Record hedging points to sustained US production increases
• US exports making the battle for m...

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18
Dec
2017
December 2017


• Global momentum holding steady
• US LI rises further
• Euro area showing strength
• China LI momentum slowing
• Robust exports supporting Japan/Korea LIs
• India growing again, but the road is uphill
• ...

LSR Global Leading Indicators
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18
Dec
2017
Oil in 2018 and beyond


• The apparent ceasefire between OPEC and US shale is inherently unstable  
• Surging US exports are changing the rulebook in the battle for global market share  
• US supply dynamics, Russian opportunism preclud...

LSR Daily Note
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17
Dec
2017
2018 Promises to be very different

Economics: Accelerating into 2018… then what?
• Positive data favour the Fed’s policy trajectory, not the market’s
• Room to expand production and capex. This is not an inflation cycle
Market...

US Watch
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Investment Strategy
18
Dec
2017
January 2018

2017 has been a spectacular year for investors, but 2018 promises to be less rosy. Bond yields are finally set to rise as the distortive effects of QE fade in the second half of the year. And with valuations already at cyclical highs, equit...

LSR Strategy Chartbook
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15
Dec
2017
Fear of missing out


• 2017 was a year to remember for stocks, 2018 set to be different
• Returns to be in line with EPS growth; central case is low teens
• But fear of missing out makes upside risk scenario (bubble) likely
• Vol at record...

LSR Asset Allocation
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13
Dec
2017
USD squeeze now, EUR strength next year


• Funding squeeze into year-end, again 
• We buy a 1m EUR/USD put to hedge risk of a sharp dollar rally 
• In the medium term EUR-bullish fundamentals should reassert themselves
Oliver Brennan

LSR Macro Strategy
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06
Dec
2017
Tax done, trade next?


• After tax success, President Trump may now focus on trade and NAFTA
• Mexico is in his crosshairs; next year’s election also a risk
• MXN is cheap and risks are in the price; sell USD/MXN rallies
Oliver Brenn...

LSR Macro Strategy
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