Macro Economic Research
26
Sep
2017
Xi’s very political economy


• The centralisation of power under Xi Jinping is sharpening implementation of economic policy  
• It provides muscle for supply-side measures and environmental controls  
• The process will continue after the Co...

China In Depth
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26
Sep
2017
Non-financial companies – lenders no more?


• Equity valuations neither rich nor cheap: net debt issuance beginning to drop  
• Foreign earnings retained abroad have something to do with financing gap  
• Capex upturn likely to turn NFCs into net borrowers...

LSR Daily Note
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25
Sep
2017
Germany’s Jamaican Storms


• Germany’s election was a disappointment for both big parties  
• Merkel will strike a three-way “Jamaica” coalition with the FDP and the Greens  
• This will make substantive euro area reform...

LSR Daily Note
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24
Sep
2017
Yellen and Trump try their special magic

Economics: Markets, households not falling under Yellen’s spell
• Flatter housing market before the hurricanes, lagging capex
• Equities aren’t too high (yet) and are no boost to consumer leverage
M...

US Watch
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Investment Strategy
20
Sep
2017
UK: BoE and short squeeze vs sentiment


• Hawkish BoE shocked market expectations, out of line with UK sentiment
• GBP rally also driven by short-squeeze; buy EUR/GBP when it’s over
• Ahead of the taper and elections we go long the BTP-Bund spread at 160bp...

LSR Macro Strategy
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15
Sep
2017
The valuation conundrum


• Locomotives and Goldilocks: world economy stronger for longer
• Central banks to become net asset sellers by mid-2018
• Equity valuations rich but there are good reasons for it
• Bonds are expensive too, repricing lik...

LSR Asset Allocation
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13
Sep
2017
High Yield for the ECB taper


• We add an ECB taper trade via high-yield spreads
• We raise stops on our equity trades and lift our take-profit target on EEM
• We go long USD/CAD again, as data suggest a bounce is due
Oliver Brennan

LSR Macro Strategy
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06
Sep
2017
ECB: Don't fear the taper


• Short-term downside risks to EUR but trend remains to topside
• ECB’s taper to have greatest impact on fixed income 
• Euro’s drag on stocks mostly a translation effect; fundamentals to dominate
Ol...

LSR Macro Strategy
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