Macro Economic Research
23
Nov
2017
Stars are aligned for oil prices… for now


• Tighter fundamentals pushing prices higher, reinforced by temporary tailwinds  
• The apparent ‘truce’ between OPEC and US shale is an unstable equilibrium  
• Oil market buoyancy amplified by Goldi...

LSR Daily Note
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22
Nov
2017
Q3 earnings season: and the winner is…


• US equities have emerged as the clear winners in Q3, helped by Tech  
• Euro area EPS growth was disappointing and forward guidance poor  
• But EA valuations remain compelling and consensus growth is now more...

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21
Nov
2017
Safe asset shortage & global dollar shortage


• Safe asset shortage driven by ECB/BoJ QE compresses US term premia  
• A sudden rise in US yields would increase supply of safe dollar assets  
• But it might worsen banks’ HQLA portfolio position, tighte...

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20
Nov
2017
Germany: No Jamaica coalition? No panic


• Snap election or not, Germany will likely end up with a minority government  
• This government might be weak, but could equally prove surprisingly effective  
• The risk for Germany and Europe is not turmoil b...

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Investment Strategy
22
Nov
2017
Black Friday? Bleak for Australia


• Falling commodity demand only the first problem for Australia
• Amazon Australia launch to import disinflation and pressure retail sector 
• NZ comparatively bullish; look to buy NZD against AUD on politics-driven dip...

LSR Macro Strategy
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17
Nov
2017
The end is not nigh


• Despite calls that the end is near, the business cycle will carry on
• Breadth of global growth is ‘unprecedented’, less debt-dependent
• Investor positioning far from stretched despite bullish outlook
• E...

LSR Asset Allocation
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15
Nov
2017
Mind the gaps


• Rising vol into year-end reflects a misplaced focus on central banks
• Year-end political upside risk for UK is under-priced: buy EUR/GBP put spread
• Inflation capitulation in SEK ignores fundamentals: buy EUR/SEK put spr...

LSR Macro Strategy
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08
Nov
2017
Tax reform: winners, and winners


• Tech stocks likely to benefit from repatriation tax cut
• Small caps to benefit from headline tax cuts, but mostly priced in
• Larger fiscal deficit to boost growth: in sum, equities well set for further gains
Oliv...

LSR Macro Strategy
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